健全和完善我国公共危机管理预警机制

公共危机管理预警机制是整个公共危机管理过程的第一步,决定着危机管理的发展态势。近年来,各类公共危机事件时有发生,为了预防危机,最大限度地降低危机带来的损害,必须构建完善的公共危机管理预警机制。本文从公共危机管理预警机制的内涵入手,分析了我国公共危机管理预警机制存在的问题,并借鉴国外公共危机管理预警机制的先进经验,探讨了如何健全和完善我国公共危机管理预警机制。     

个人主义价值观中的“集体精神”传统:美国早期文化思潮探究及其启示

Individualism lies at the very core of American culture and values. However, American individualism has very profound and complex nature rooted from several cultural traditions, and takes on different meanings in various contexts. The paper examines four cultural traditions in early American history——biblical strand, republican strand, utilitarian and expressive individualism, and then introduces their representative individuals——John Winthrop, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin and Walt Whitman. As the result of the interaction and competition of these four traditions, American individualism shows both “individualistic” and “collectivistic” modes, and they work together to shape the rich national character. The study shows that a dynamic and interactive perspective on American individualism also leads to some enlightenment on current studies of Chinese values.     

Petitions and ‘legitimate’ engagement with power in absolutist Denmark 1660–1800

ABSTRACT

Petitioning was universal across early modern Europe, but worked differently within distinct polities. Denmark-Norway became, after 1660, an absolute hereditary dual monarchy, with no further meetings of the Estates, and no other formal representative structures. The crown, however, did fully acknowledge the right to petition, confirming the mechanism and the legal basis for doing so in the full law code of 1683, Danske Lov. Petitions from all levels of society were processed in the central bureaucracy, and those processed through the Chancellery (Danske Kancelli) can be analysed systematically. However, a number of petitions were handled separately in the Exchequer (Rentekammer) or through the legal system. This article discusses the different types of petitions to the Danish crown, and analyses some examples that illustrate not merely the complicated negotiation of power within an absolute monarchy, but also the kind of language and cultural conventions necessary for the system to work.     

早期葡萄牙在远东殖民扩张中的天主教因素

近代早期的葡萄牙既是信奉天主教的旧教国,也是最早向海外扩张的欧洲殖民国家。葡萄牙的宗教狂热决定了其在殖民活动中不可避免地受到了天主教的影响。本文以近代早期葡萄牙在东亚海域的殖民扩张为背景,从几个方面探讨了天主教的影响。     

代议制与公共财政——近代西方代议制宪政模式的形成及其作用机理分析

宪政包含着责任政府原则,其核心价值之一,就在于确保国家权力的公共性,以便保证国家权力用于公共服务。透视近代西方国家宪政的发展历程,就会注意到近代西方国家的宪政模式是代议制,而代议制宪政模式的作用机理又是与国家财政的公共化建构紧密联系在一起的。代议制既是近代西方国家的宪政模式,又是近代西方国家财政公共化建构的制度之基。因为,只有确保国家财政的公共化才能确保国家权力的公共性。这也正是近代西方宪政模式与其古典和中世纪时期宪政模式的不同之处:后者主要是通过司法来规制国王所代表的行政权力,表现为司法型宪政模式;而前者主要是通过议会对国家财政的公共化组建和监管,来实施对行政权力的政治规范和约束,表现为代议制型宪政模式。     

关于刑事侦查阶段引入民事先予执行的思考

许多刑事(附带民事诉讼)案件,在侦查阶段被害人的民事权利就急需救济。然而在刑事诉讼法中,对如何在刑事侦查阶段保障被害人的民事权利,却规定甚少,由此引发了一些社会问题。为了使被害人的民事权利在刑事侦查阶段也能得到保障,文章就刑事侦查阶段引入民事先予执行问题进行了理论和实践的探讨。     

The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support

The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.     

Greek In-Service and Preservice Teachers’ Views About Bullying in Early Childhood Settings

Despite the plethora of studies regarding bullying worldwide, there are limited studies at the early childhood level. This article presents the results of a pilot study aiming at exploring preservice and in-service early childhood teachers’ views on bullying in Greek early childhood settings. A total of 192 early childhood teachers completed a questionnaire containing six vignettes and questions regarding the seriousness of the incidents, feelings toward the students involved, and methods of intervention. Results indicated that early childhood teachers considered social bullying to be less serious than the other forms of bullying, displayed less sympathy for victims of social bullying, and were less likely to intervene in social bullying incidents; they varied their actions toward bullies and victims according to the type of bullying behavior.     

Is Something Better Than Nothing? The Effect of Short Terms of Mandatory Parole Supervision

This article reports the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation of a mandatory early parole program. New Jersey’s Statutory Early Release (SER) law required that all inmates, with few exceptions, be released onto parole six months before the expiration of their sentence. SER participants (n = 405) were matched using propensity scores to two groups of similar offenders who left prison in the year prior to the implementation of the SER statute. Comparison groups include former inmates that were released either unconditionally (n = 4,507) or onto standard parole (n = 5,657). At the conclusion of the matching routines, 395 SER-parolee pairs and 394 SER-unconditional release pairs were identified. Outcomes measures, including comparisons of rearrest and reconviction rates, are reported pre and post matching, and at 6-, 12-, and 18-month intervals. Individuals enrolled in the SER program demonstrated significantly reduced arrest rates during the SER supervision period when compared to unconditionally released offenders, though differences do not persist past six months. Offending rates for both SER participants and matched parolees were generally similar, with some significant variation in arrest rates emerging after 12 months.     

建立城市治安预警的理论依据阐释及意义分析

目前,我国警学界和公安机关对治安预警没有一个统一的界定,各位学者从不同角度对治安预警进行了阐述。风险社会理论和危机管理理论的发展和成熟,揭示了后现代化时期风险和危机时刻存在,并且日趋国际化,这对公安实战部门提出了新的挑战和要求,因此建立一套符合我国国情的治安预警机制显得十分迫切。治安预警的建立和实现有利于增强公安机关的应变能力,履行维护社会治安秩序的使命,有利于增强人们的安全感,同时凸显了情报信息的作用,促进和谐警民关系的构建。